China’s military is emerging as a true competitor to the U.S. under Xi Jinping says Alastair Gale.
The People’s Liberation Army now has hypersonic missiles that evade most defenses, a technology the U.S. is still developing. Its attack drones can swarm to paralyze communications networks.
China’s naval ships outnumber America’s, and it launched its third aircraft carrier this summer, the first to be designed and built in the country. Its defense budget is second only to the U.S.’s. China’s military has more serving members, at around 2 million, compared with just under 1.4 million in the U.S.
The question for Mr. Xi, which he has raised in public, is whether those forces are ready for battle.
China hasn’t fought a war since a brief border clash with Vietnam in 1979. Unlike American forces, who have fought for most of the past two decades in Iraq and Afghanistan, China’s service members have virtually no combat experience—which some Chinese leaders have referred to as a “peace disease.”
Finding a solution short of actual war has been a priority for Mr. Xi, especially as he seeks to prepare the country for a potential showdown with the U.S.
China Under Xi Jinping
Xi’s Endgame: A China Prepared for Conflict With the U.S.
Xi’s Quest for Control Over China Targets Even Old Friends
Xi’s Ideological Ambition Challenges China’s Economic Prospects
China’s Surveillance State Pushes Deeper into Citizens’ Lives
“We must comprehensively strengthen military training and preparation, and improve the army’s ability to win,” Mr. Xi said on Sunday at the opening of the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade congress.
The issue has become more pressing for Beijing as tensions build with Taiwan, which China sees as part of its territory. On Sunday, Mr. Xi reiterated that Beijing wouldn’t renounce the use of force in China’s effort to take control of the island.
“The complete unification of the motherland must be realized, and it will be realized,” he said, drawing loud applause.
Taiwan reported few sorties by the Chinese air force close to the island before 2020. It says they have reached more than 1,200 so far this year. After Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in August, angering Beijing, Chinese military aircraft began crossing the median line between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland on an almost daily basis.
Beijing’s state media reported an increase in more qualified recruits to the PLA after Mrs. Pelosi’s visit.
Yet PLA publications say some officers make flawed operational decisions, struggle to lead their troops and sometimes don’t understand their own orders. Rank-and-file troops are caught in a top-down system of command, potentially leaving them ill-equipped to improvise in battlefield situations—a situation that has hobbled Russia’s military in its invasion of Ukraine.
China’s political priorities mean that around 40% of new recruits’ training has involved studying about the Communist Party rather than learning how to be a service member. Leaders, some of whom see young Chinese as pampered products of the country’s one-child policy, question whether they are tough enough to fight.
For the full article in pdf with images, please click here:
Write to Alastair Gale at alastair.gale@wsj.com
Appeared in the October 21, 2022, print edition as 'China’s Military Catches Up'.
A Chinese soldier held a flag during joint military exercises in Kyrgyzstan in 2016. VYACHESLAV OSELE DKO/AFP/Getty Images
コメント