In Moldova, the European Political Community takes shape.
RUSSIA’S BLOODY war on Ukraine is reshaping Europe in profound and unexpected ways, and not just on the battlefield. On June 1st leaders of 45 European countries, from Britain to Georgia, met to discuss their collective security at the second summit of the European Political Community (EPC). It was held at the Mimi Castle in Moldova—just 13 miles (20km) from the Ukrainian border.
Although Turkey’s leader, the recently re-elected Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pulled out, the summit was nonetheless a symbolic show of unity and support for countries on Europe’s vulnerable eastern flank–both for war-battered Ukraine and for the host country, Moldova. To drive home the point, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, was there in person. Moldova closed its airspace for the duration.
The idea of the EPC was dreamed up last year in a speech by the French president, Emmanuel Macron. Inspired by a confederation imagined in 1989 by François Mitterrand, then France’s president, it was initially dismissed in many quarters as a French ploy to stall enlargement of the 27-member European Union.
France has historically been unenthusiastic about expanding the bloc; in 2019 it vetoed opening EU membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia. In 2003 another French president, Jacques Chirac, condescendingly dismissed the support of aspiring member countries from eastern Europe for America’s invasion of Iraq (which France opposed), saying they had “missed an opportunity to shut up”.
Even so, the community’s first meeting, in Prague last October, drew a crowd of 44, including leaders of places with no desire to join the EU–not least Liz Truss, the British prime minister at the time. This time, discussions centred on European security and Ukraine. Nobody expected any breakthrough decisions, and none were made. But leaders were able to talk to each other on a relatively equal footing. Moldova’s president, Maia Sandu, got a much-needed boost. Spain hosts the next summit; Britain the one after that.
Mr Macron turned up after a stop in the Slovakian capital, Bratislava, where—to some surprise—he declared that EU enlargement should take place “as fast as possible”. “The question for us is not whether we should enlarge,” he said, “but how we should do it.” In a nod to Chirac, Mr Macron confessed to the largely central and eastern European audience: “We have sometimes missed an opportunity to listen.”
This marks a gradual but structural shift in French policy, which will have repercussions for the future shape of Europe. A year ago, on a (belated) trip to Kyiv, Mr Macron backed Ukraine and Moldova for EU candidate status. French diplomats, then running the council’s rotating presidency, worked hard to secure union-wide support. France also lifted its veto on North Macedonia’s membership bid. In recent weeks, French diplomats have worked behind the scenes to make sure that Moldova, one of Europe’s poorest countries, could stage this week’s summit with panache.
The continent’s new geopolitics seem also to be pushing France in a more hawkish direction. In his speech in Bratislava, Mr Macron called for Ukraine to be given a “path to NATO membership” at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius in July. From the president who in 2019 told The Economist that NATO was experiencing “brain death”, this is quite a turnaround. Mr Putin, said Mr Macron on May 31st, “has awakened [NATO] with the worst of electric shocks.”
The French president will doubtless still ruffle feathers when he chooses to. Nobody in Europe has forgotten that he once called for sparing Russia after the war is over. On a recent trip to China, Mr Macron revived concern about his vision of “strategic autonomy” and his commitment to the Western alliance. This week, at least, the tone and words have been well chosen.
The coming months will test how far fresh talk of unity and solidarity can be translated into commitments. The EU is working on a longer-term financing commitment for Ukraine. As Mr Macron noted, there will be no immediate consensus on NATO membership for Ukraine before the Vilnius summit; America, for one, remains reticent.
Yet thinking about how to provide credible future security guarantees to Ukraine is under way. For its part, France will host a meeting of defence ministers on June 19th to discuss European air defences and “deep-strike” capability. It has offered to hold a dialogue on the French nuclear deterrent.
France and Germany, the EU’s two biggest countries, are also making a greater effort to get along. After a dismal period late last year, when they were contradicting each other on nuclear energy, defence procurement and more, there is a desire to reset. The French president will visit Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, at his residence in Potsdam on June 6th. In early July Mr Macron will get a full state visit to Germany, the first for a French president in 23 years. A Franco-German working group is looking at ways to reform the internal workings of the EU, a crucial prelude to further enlargement, but one that will be fraught with difficulties.
This week’s summit in Moldova is a reminder that Europe, in any guise, is far broader than the axis between Paris and Berlin. Still, little gets done in the EU unless France and Germany can agree. As a rule, the two countries differ on most issues but share the will to find common ground. They now need to find a common approach to pan-European security, if they hope to ensure that this week’s summit in Moldova adds up to more than symbolism and a group photo.■
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Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz
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