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Writer's pictureMichael Julien

In Latin America, Japan Serves the US, and Itself – Geopolitical Futures – 23.01.23

Tokyo has become a surprising linchpin of Washington’s anti-China strategy in the region says Allison Fedirka.


The rivalry between the United States and China is complicated, to say the least. Washington and Beijing are two of the world’s largest economic and military powers, with interests in every region of the globe that are either reinforced or undermined by any number of political and economic policies, security alliances and informal partnerships. In turn, these interests can elevate the importance of seemingly inconsequential countries or regions, pit otherwise indifferent countries against each other, and spur new rivalries of their own.


That’s a long way of saying that Japan, of all places, has low-key become vital to America’s strategy to counter China in Latin America. China has spent years building inroads into the region to secure an array of commodity supplies critical to its economy. Leveraging Japan, a central cog in the U.S. alliance system in the Eastern Pacific, is merely part of Washington’s response. And Japan appears to be on board with the arrangement because it helps protect interests it shares with the U.S. and, as important, helps it secure its own.


Shared Interests


China’s strategy in Latin America is fairly straightforward: Throw billions of dollars at like-minded or vulnerable governments to secure rights over natural resources. Washington either can’t or won’t do the same, preferring instead to use private sector participation to help bring in the equivalent investment, financing and economic activity. But economies the world over are now dedicating massive amounts of resources to post-pandemic recovery efforts. Partners who can bring in additional funding have quickly become a premium.


The countries most likely to step up are those with strong economies and relatively deep pockets, and who share U.S. interests and allies.

Enter Japan. From Jan. 4 to Jan. 12, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi paid official visits to Ecuador, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Aside from Ecuador, these countries boast the largest economies in Latin America and are places with which Washington is trying to improve bilateral ties. Indeed, Hayashi’s political agenda for the tour clearly aligns with the U.S.’ values, priorities and global vision.

In several of his public addresses, he highlighted the need for networks that can uphold the rule of law, keep the state out of capitalism, and secure free and open maritime order. These concepts are almost identical to the values the U.S. invokes when it discusses the need to contain China.


The tour also reflects the U.S.-Japan alignment on economics. Hayashi’s advocacy for a better regulatory environment plays off the desire to find ways to undermine China’s ability to engage in financial and economic projects. By framing these changes as ways to, say, facilitate research and development or human resource development in Latin America, Japan is also trying to get these countries on board with its vision, and thus America’s vision, of the global economy.


Specifically, Japan and the U.S. share the view of Latin America’s potential to help create secure value and supply chains. The region (namely, Argentina, Chile and Bolivia) is home to large lithium reserves as well as copper and rare earth materials that can be used in batteries, microchip production and other high-value tech products.


These products can be used in the automotive industry, where China has grown its market share in recent years and created more competition for major auto industries in the U.S., Mexico, Japan, Argentina and Brazil. Integrating Latin America into these supply chains facilitates Japan’s access to U.S. markets with lower logistical costs, and it supports U.S. near-shoring objectives.


Japan has also prioritized digital transformation in its ties with Latin America, particularly in the area of information communication technology. Again, these efforts aim to present alternatives to Chinese services and tech like Huawei-supported 5G, which has been cited by the U.S. for potential security concerns.


National Interests


Japan isn’t merely doing Washington’s bidding, of course. It has reasons of its own to shore up ties in the region. Latin American countries play a secondary role in Japan’s future vision for economic prosperity and security. Tokyo seeks to promote free trade with the region, particularly through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which the U.S. is not a part of. Japan’s economic strategy naturally favors Pacific Alliance countries like Chile that embrace free market principles more readily than others. In that sense, Latin America serves as the eastern flank of Japan’s free and open Indo-Pacific vision.


This geography fosters a potential security structure Japan could leverage in the future. Later this year, for example, Japan will invite government officials from Latin American countries for training on combatting unregulated, unreported, illegal fishing practices – which China is notorious for. Latin American countries along the Atlantic coast also help Japan extend its reach into the Atlantic and Africa, as evidenced by joint projects with Brazil in Mozambique and Angola.


For the full article in pdf with charts, please click here:


Allison Fedirka is the director of analysis for Geopolitical Futures. In addition to analyzing and writing about global geopolitical issues, she helps train new analysts, oversees the intellectual quality of analyst work and helps guide the forecasting process. Prior to joining Geopolitical Futures, Ms. Fedirka worked for Stratfor as a Latin America specialist and subsequently as the Latin America regional director. She lived in South America – primarily Argentina and Brazil – for more than seven years and, in addition to English, fluently speaks Spanish and Portuguese. Ms. Fedirka has a bachelor’s degree in Spanish and international studies from Washington University in St. Louis and a master’s degree in international relations and affairs from the University of Belgrano, Argentina. Her thesis was on Brazil and Angola and south-south cooperation.


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