Putin dangles the atomic threat because he knows it frightens cowardly figures in the West to back off.
In his big ‘state of the nation’ address to the Russian public – and, by extension the world – the dictator predictably raged against the West, saying that if it dared put troops in Ukraine – as mooted by French President Emmanuel Macron this week – then that will be the red line crossed to trigger nuclear Armageddon.
It is true to say that Putin is investing in nuclear technology – perhaps most memorably the charmingly-named ‘Satan 2’ rocket – and it is also true that he is preparing a much larger arsenal in order to threaten the allies of Ukraine with.
So would he actually fire a missile? Fat chance.
As so often, he is bluffing – again. Every time in the last two years when things go badly for him, he threatens nuclear attack – but I am yet to see a mushroom cloud over London, Paris, or Berlin.
Anybody with the slightest understanding of nuclear brinkmanship knows he will not – and cannot – use his nuclear weapons. It would be insane for him to do so, ensuring his own annihilation and putting him on a collision course with his own armed forces.
Putin prepares for nuclear war because he knows it frightens cowardly figures in the West to back off. It has worked time and time again throughout this war. The nuclear threat is his trump card.
You know things are serious in the West when only the French are speaking sense. Macron’s proposition that boots on the ground in Ukraine might be necessary in some extreme circumstances was the sensible thing to say, even if only to may Moscow think twice about how it approaches this war. That’s why it was utter madness for the British and Germans to dismiss the idea out of hand. It shows a lack of strategic thinking and appears to dismiss, or at least side-line, the operational art of war.
This very week 33-years ago, many young tank commanders like me vanquished the illegal Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1991 with British, US and French “boots on the ground”. It was deemed necessary to do so. Whilst it is extremely unlikely that we would see that in Ukraine – though we must not rule it out – the First Gulf War still offers a ‘blueprint’ that Ukraine could replicate if we give them the weapons they have asked for.
The truth is, by not providing that military support, and by ruling out boots on the ground, the West has ceded the strategic initiative to Moscow. They can do what they wish with impunity.
Presumably, now Putin knows there is no chance NATO would deploy troops into Ukraine: that will allow him to re-double his efforts to subjugate the country in the knowledge he is safe. It hands the advantage to the Russian war planners. Instead of restricting their freedom of manoeuvre, we are doing the reverse. Would Napoleon or Wellington have ignored opportunities to confuse their enemies?
There are so many bad things happening at the moment – from the cost-of-living crisis to climate change, to Gaza, to Yemen – but it is nothing compared to the potential of having to fight in and for Ukraine ourselves. If we do not sort it out this year, this is going to drag on and it is going to encompass us all.
Putin knows that the nuclear threat is the best way to make us think twice. But we must not allow ourselves to be intimated. If we do, the outcome for Putin is certain: victory.
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Colonel (Retd) Hamish de Bretton-Gordon OBE is a former commander of UK & NATO CBRN Forces.
Another speech from Vladimir Putin, another threat to press the big red button.
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