In the depths of the Russian winter, the War turned and the invading forces found themselves overrun. Only a few weeks before the Germans had been within sight of Moscow. Now, in December 1941 in sub-zero temperatures on the Eastern front, the Sixth Panzer Division reported a strength of just 350 riflemen and no tanks. “There were no reserves. All leave was cancelled,” write Brendan Simms and Charlie Laderman in Hitler’s American Gamble: Pearl Harbour and the German March to Global War. “The catastrophe is at the door,” a German officer wrote at the time to his wife. It was a deserved punishment, he said, for Nazi crimes. The Soviet Union's counter-attack was bolstered greatly by weaponry delivered by Britain, much of it secured through the Lend Lease programme of US military aid. Hitler’s American Gamble is a phenomenal read, illuminating the brief period between the attack by Japan and Hitler’s decision to join in with his own declaration of war against the US. It was not clear the German dictator needed to join the Japanese, or whether America's leaders, with a strong isolationist element in Congress, would decide to stick to war on one front and fight only in the Pacific rather than Europe. Luckily, Hitler opted to fight the US, to take on the capitalist machine, bringing down on his head the might of America. One of Simms and Laderman’s themes is the centrality of industrial production in war and the decisive role of American and Allied industry in defeating aggression. War is in part about manufacturing. And so it is proving, again, in Ukraine. The headlines this weekend tell of a Russian victory in the salt-mining town of Soledar, in Donbas. Ukrainian officials say hellish fighting is ongoing and claim to have inflicted many Russian casualties. Mercenaries and Russian conscripts have been thrown into the battle. Reports suggest the Kremlin views Soledar as a warm up for the resumption of a more ambitious campaign, and a fresh assault on Kyiv in the next few months, trying to knock Ukraine out of the war before the tanks and heavy weapons the West is promising to send arrive. This week, Putin appointed Valery Gerasimov, Russia's chief of the general staff, as overall commander of the war, demoting “General Armageddon” Sergei Surovikin. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, identified the danger. This week he urged Ukraine's allies to send more military aid, and heavy weapons, fast. Putin is in such a hurry because long-term Russia is in a mess, as it tries to manufacture sufficient supplies and ammunition to keep its murderous campaign going through this year and beyond. The US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin claimed last month that the Russians could sustain fully serviceable rocket and tube-fired weapons only until this spring. The Economist quipped at the time that many Russian shells are probably older than the conscripts firing them. The Russian government promised last autumn to speed up production of state of the art weapons. It is not clear a gangster economy, hooked on oil and gas exports rather than high-end manufacturing or services, can make the switch. The countries supporting Ukraine will face questions too, when inventories are cleaned out during the desperate fighting in the next few months. There will be a public debate in the West. Is enough being done to ensure supplies to Ukraine can be maintained and also replenished at home? There is some positive movement. Europe is good at high-end manufacturing when it gets going. Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo, an Italian defence and security analyst, published a report this week on Shephard, the defence industry publication, explaining the latest developments as European countries look to restock. The Czechoslovak Group, artillery shell manufacturers, is doubling production. The Czech Republic is recruiting thousands of Ukrainian workers to increase manufacturing speed and capacity. The Norwegian firm Nammo is seeking to increase output by perhaps as much as ten times. The UK Ministry of Defence has added £500-600 million for replenishment, says Gosselin-Malo. And French, Romanian and German firms are expanding production. This year will be defined in part by this race for supplies. If Ukraine can hold out, and even make its own advances, then Russia will find itself trapped by history, stuck in a new version of an old story. Although wars in the industrial age are not won by production clout alone, without it defeat looms in the end.
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Iain Martin, Publisher and CEO, Reaction Life
iain.martin@reaction.life
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