The attacks may be part of the highly anticipated counter-offensive.
UKRAINE’S ARMED FORCES are turning up the heat. In the past two weeks our analysis of satellite data has detected 907 fires likely to be war-related in Russian-held territory in Ukraine. That’s more than four times as many as in the two weeks before (see chart). From Kharkiv to Kherson activity along the frontline, and apparent strikes on the Russian rear, are picking up. The last time something like this happened, last autumn, it preceded Ukraine’s impressive gains in the south.
Our system relies on satellites that circle over Ukraine twice a day and uses thermal imaging to detect high-temperature events in places not obscured by clouds. We use a machine-learning system to estimate whether these events are related to the war, by comparing patterns with what was observed before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. It is far from perfect, but it offers a consistent and neutral guide to probable military activity in the country.
The latest reading, on May 25th, shows a spike in high-temperature events in Russian-held areas (we use maps produced by the Institute for the Study of War, a think-tank, to assess areas of control). Whether this really is the beginning of the much-touted counter-offensive is not easy to say. Such an operation is only readily observed if it succeeds, or fails spectacularly. Our data do not yet suggest a large Ukrainian advance, or gains of territory. Rather, they are consistent with a force laying the groundwork for that to happen. Ukraine appears to be probing defences for weaknesses, and, by striking command posts and logistics far behind the front line, reducing the ability of Russia’s forces to plug gaps.
The uptick in the number of fires began on May 11th. There is reason to believe that on the same day Ukraine began using Storm Shadow missiles, long-range weapons capable of striking fortified positions, which were sent by Britain. The average number of fires marked as war-related in Russian-held areas is currently at the highest since August 2nd 2022—more than 100 per day. (These totals are only a guide to activity: the satellites cannot register all fires and larger ones may sometimes be recorded as multiple smaller ones.)
Sources: DMSP Nighttime Lights; ESA; Google Earth Engine; Institute for the Study of War; NASA; WorldPop; The Economist
If and where Ukrainian forces will advance will depend in part on what these stage-setting operations reveal about Russian defences. A strike in the south, perhaps over the Dnipro river near Kherson, is one option, as it would endanger Russia’s control of Crimea. Another is a renewed push in the north, following up on past advances eastward from Kharkiv. And, between the two, Ukrainian forces are still fighting, and making limited advances, around Bakhmut (despite claims that the city has fallen to Russia). We have detected activity in all three areas in the past week. A successful strike south-east from Zaporizhia would be appealing, too. It would cut off the land bridge to Crimea and Russian forces west of Melitopol.
For a decisive breakthrough, surprise will be key. That might mean feints in one location, to draw or pin down Russian forces, before major strikes elsewhere. Wherever the thrust of the attack might be, Ukrainian commanders will try to keep their Russian counterparts, and the rest of us, guessing what they might do next.■
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