The Israel-Iran standoff in maps - The Economist - 09.10.24
Michael Julien- Oct 12, 2024
- 3 min read
A visual guide to the escalating conflict.
FOR MORE than a year, fighting between Israel and Iran’s network of allied militias has brought the two countries dangerously close to direct war. Recent escalations make such a confrontation more likely. Last week Iran fired around 200 missiles at Israel. Israel is now preparing its response. What comes next could draw in Gulf states and America.
Israel has four possible sets of targets in Iran. The least provocative option would be a tit-for-tat attack on its missile bases and factories. The area around the city of Kermanshah, for example, is believed to have been the launch site of missile attacks on American targets in Iraq and Syria in 2017, 2018 and 2020. An Iranian base there was later the target of a suspected Israeli strike in 2022. Another option would be to go after military and political leaders (in the same way that it has killed much of the top ranks of Hamas and Hizbullah).
To inflict economic pain, Israel may instead choose to target the main source of Iran’s foreign income: oil. Hitting oil infrastructure along the south-east of the country could push an already weak economy over the brink. (Such a move would also risk a spike in global energy prices.) Most alluring of all, however, would be strikes against nuclear facilities—something Israel has been contemplating for more than 20 years. Iran says they are intended for civilian use, but many think Iran is close to having the wherewithal to build nuclear weapons.
Israel and Iran both possess weapons that can comfortably reach each other’s targets (see map 2), but Israel would likely depend on aircraft to strike Iran, using stand-off missiles or gravity bombs. (Its longest-range missiles, including the 4,800km-range Jericho 3, are reserved for nuclear weapons.) Aircraft would need air-to-air refuelling and the ability to fly over Arab countries, complicating any attack on Iran.
For its part, Iran possesses one of the region’s most powerful and varied missile arsenals. Its Shahab-3, a liquid-fueled missile, can reach targets as much as 1,300km (810 miles) away, easily putting Israel in range. The Sejjil missile, capable of rapid deployment from mobile launchers, is believed to have a range of around 2,000km, putting parts of Europe in range.
Iran’s allies in Lebanon (ie, Hizbullah), Gaza (Hamas) and Yemen (Houthis) have been well supplied with Iranian weapons—many of which can reach Israeli cities. But Israel’s successful campaign against this “axis of resistance”—especially Hizbullah, whose leadership has been decimated and missile stocks partly destroyed—has weakened Iran’s deterrence.
Another factor is defence systems. Israel’s air defences are also far superior to Iran’s. Most of the missiles from Iran’s attack on April 13th, for example, were intercepted and destroyed. And although more missiles made it through in the most recent attack, it did not appear to cause extensive damage. Israel’s ability to parry Iran’s missile barrage while evading Iran’s own air defences makes a large-scale response more likely.
Despite these advantages, there is no guarantee that an Israeli attack on Iran will be successful. Israeli insiders told The Economist that the window to significantly disrupt its nuclear programme with air strikes may have closed: the relevant facilities are now buried deep underground, and nuclear expertise is widespread. And the Israel Defence Forces, already stretched across multiple fronts, still faces its own operational limits. Two of its combat divisions are deployed in Gaza. Four more are already involved in the ground campaign in Lebanon, representing much of its fighting force. An air campaign in Iran would open yet another front in an ever-expanding war.■
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