By Xan Smiley: Editor at large, The Economist
Not least in relation to Israel
AMONG THE swirling sands of Middle Eastern diplomacy, the most striking shift in recent years is the more solid peace that has broken out between Israel and a chunk of the Arab world, thanks to the Abraham accords signed by the Jewish state, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain in 2020, followed by similar agreements with Morocco and Sudan. Since then, Israel has been eagerly extending links in trade and technology, especially with the UAE and Morocco. A key question for 2023 is whether this nascent economic bloc will prosper and expand.
As Israel’s peace treaties with Jordan and Egypt hold firm, the country to watch is Saudi Arabia, whose backdoor connections with Israel are expected to grow. Muhammad bin Salman, the kingdom’s crown prince and de facto ruler, is said to have allocated $2bn to invest in Israeli startups, for example. But while Saudi Arabia is widely considered to be next in line to join the Abrahamic club, improved relations will probably fall short of formal recognition as long as the ageing King Salman is on the throne—and as long as there is no progress towards a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.
The Abraham accords have weakened pressure on Israel to give a state to the Palestinians, who are as wretched as ever under the feeble leadership of Mahmoud Abbas (who is due to turn 88 in 2023). As things stand, most Arab governments—if not their people—have lost faith in the Palestinian cause. But a flare-up in Jerusalem, or a resumption of fighting between Israel and Palestinian militants, would test the accords. Its members hope to isolate trade ties from Israel’s fight with the Palestinians. Yet although the accords are largely economic in nature, they are also intended to counter the common enemy, Iran.
The most dangerous schism in the region remains the one that divides Sunni Islam, the dominant variant among Arabs, and the Shia alternative espoused by Iran and vigorous Shia offshoots in Syria and Yemen. But this age-old conflict is not immutable. Some Arabs in the Gulf who have long been hostile to Iran may seek an accommodation with it. Watch, in this respect, the UAE and Qatar, whose merchants have ancient ties across the water. Saudi Arabia, by contrast, is likely to remain adamantly opposed to stretching out the hand of friendship.
The chances of a revival of the nuclear deal with Iran are low, but not zero
The chances of a revival of the deal between Western powers and Iran over Iranian nuclear plans are low, if the ayatollahs stay in charge. Assuming Binyamin Netanyahu manages to assemble a ruling coalition after Israel’s election on November 1st 2022, the chances will be lower still. But if Iran’s regime were to fall in the face of persistent mass protests, tensions across the Gulf would lessen, to everyone’s benefit. Israel might even talk again to Iran, too.
Iran’s key protégé in the region, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, is likely to survive as long as the West is distracted by the war in Ukraine. He will continue to reaffirm his grip over the country, most of which is now under his sway, though the borderlands with Turkey and Iraq may periodically erupt in violence. Arab rulers who sought to topple him, such as those in the UAE and Qatar, are becoming friendlier again. So is Turkey. Though bogged down in Ukraine, Russia will be loth to let its Syrian ally fall.
Yemen may continue to be the bloodiest of all the countries of the Middle East in 2023, though a truce agreed upon in April between the warring sides may be rekindled. Libya, too, looks likely to stay trapped in at least two unhappy parts, each periodically making war on the other, while the UN seeks ways to forge some kind of consensus.
Relations between Algeria and next-door Morocco, the most populous Arab countries after Egypt, Sudan and Iraq, will stay frozen thanks to a long-standing row over phosphate-rich Western Sahara, whose sovereignty Morocco claims and Algeria disputes. Morocco may be gaining diplomatic ground globally, but Algeria is unlikely to give way. It is absurd that citizens of neighbouring Arab countries cannot even cross each others’ borders. But old animosities across the region do not tend to fade easily. Except, just for the moment, those with Israel.■
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Xan Smiley joined The Economist in 1983 as Middle East editor and became political editor and “Bagehot” columnist in 1992. In 1995 he became Europe editor, starting the “Charlemagne” column, and in October 2003 he became the Middle East and Africa Editor. Previously he was Washington correspondent of the Sunday Telegraph (1989-92), Moscow correspondent of the Daily Telegraph (1986-89), an editorial leader writer at The Times (1981-83), and the editor (and later co-owner) of Africa Confidential, a specialist newsletter.
This article appeared in the Middle East section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “Shifting sands”
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