Russia has begun moving some troops from Ukraine to deal with a Ukrainian incursion, the U.S. and Ukraine say. But Moscow appears reluctant to withdraw units from hot spots in eastern Ukraine.
Since its surprise incursion into Russia more than a week ago, Ukraine has steadily gained ground, saying it advanced even deeper into Russian territory on Wednesday. It says it has captured hundreds of soldiers, as Russia has evacuated more than 130,000 people from nearby communities and declared a new state of emergency in one region.
And now Moscow has begun withdrawing some troops from Ukraine in an effort to repel Kyiv’s offensive into western Russia, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, an indication that the surprise attack is forcing Moscow to change its battle plans in Ukraine.
Taken collectively, Ukraine’s actions have deftly put Russia on the defensive, creating a new, if small, frontline in a war where Moscow has long had the upper hand. If Russia brings reinforcements in large numbers from other parts of the front, it could provide some relief to Ukrainian troops who are struggling to push back relentless Russian attacks, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
It is an edge that Ukraine appears intent on keeping, as its eyes, for now, holding the Russian territory it controls. President Volodymyr Zelensky discussed on Wednesday the possibility of establishing military administrations in areas seized by Ukrainian troops. The country’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said Ukraine was creating a “buffer zone” in western Russia to protect border towns and villages. But it’s an advantage that may not translate into broader gains elsewhere — and one that may be hard to maintain.
Military analysts say Russia has so far responded by sending units that were not fighting in hot spots on the front, making it unclear whether Ukraine’s gambit would have the effect it desired on the overall battlefield. Russia has been careful not to pull troops out of eastern Ukraine, where its army has been steadily advancing in recent months.
As the incursion onto Russian soil enters its second week, the Ukrainian military will also face its own challenges, the analysts say. Capturing more land will become harder as Russian reinforcements arrive, while holding on to captured territory will expose stationary Ukrainian positions to potentially devastating airstrikes.
The Russian troop movements were reported by Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Army, who told the Ukrainian news media on Tuesday that Russia had moved some units from the southern Ukrainian regions of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro to other areas of the fighting, including the Kursk region.
In Washington, U.S. officials said on Wednesday that Russia had withdrawn some infantry units from Ukraine and was sending them to Kursk to help defend against the Ukrainian offensive. They would not say how many troops or where they coming from.
But the officials said they had not yet seen the Kremlin divert armoured battalions and other combat power that the United States believes Russia would need to repel the incursion.
There is little sign that Moscow has redeployed troops from the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, which Moscow hopes to fully capture and where it has been on the offensive for months. Instead, the Russian Army appears to have sent in reinforcements drawn mainly from less combat-ready units based in northern Russia and Ukraine, military experts say.
“The Russian strategy is to avoid drawing from units in the Donetsk direction as much as possible,” said Serhii Kuzan, the chairman of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, an independent research group. “The Russians are reluctant to do this, because it would jeopardize all the gains of their summer offensive campaign.”
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based organization, said that the Russian authorities “appear to be largely relying on Russian conscripts, and elements of some regular and irregular military units pulled from less critical sectors of the frontline to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion.”
Lithuania’s defense minister, Laurynas Kasciunas, said on Tuesday that Russia was moving troops from its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad to Kursk. Mr. Kasciunas was visiting President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv.
Ukrainian military officials said that Russian assaults in the Donetsk region had continued unabated over the past week, despite the new Ukrainian offensive. Russian troops have continued to slowly advance in or toward the frontline towns of Chasiv Yar, Niu York, Pokrovsk and Toretsk, they say.
Oleksandr Bordiian, a spokesman for the 32nd Separate Mechanize Brigade, which is fighting near Toretsk, told the Ukrainian news media on Tuesday that Ukraine’s attacks in the Kursk region “have not yet had any impact on the density of assaults and shelling in our direction.” A medic fighting in another brigade near Toretsk also said on Wednesday that there had been no changes on that part of the front.
On Wednesday, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top commander, told Mr. Zelensky that Ukrainian troops had advanced up to two kilometers, about 1.2 miles, in the Kursk region since the beginning of the day. He also said that more than 100 Russian soldiers had been captured during the day. His claims could not be independently verified.
Military analysts say that Kyiv will need to expand or hold onto its gains in western Russia long enough to compel Moscow to divert significant forces from the battlefield in Ukraine.
After quick successes in the early days of the offensive, Ukraine’s advance in the Kursk region appears to have slowed, according to maps of the battlefield compiled by independent analysts. Ukrainian troops are now attacking to the north and south of the bulge they have carved out in Russian territory, but are facing more Russian resistance, the maps show.
Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which scrutinizes footage from the battlefield, said on Tuesday evening that an attack by Ukrainian troops on Giri, a village southeast from the initial Ukrainian drive and about eight miles from the Ukrainian border, had likely been repelled. “They suffered significant losses and likely had to retreat,” Mr. Kastehelmi wrote on social media.
The Ukrainian raids appear to have a strategy of probing and destabilizing Russian defenses. After several days of Ukrainian attacks on the Belgorod region, which borders Kursk, the regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, declared a state of emergency on Wednesday.
Whether Ukraine can continue to conduct these raids depends on the number of troops it can commit to the fight. Its forces are stretched thin, and Kyiv has already sent experienced units, pulled from the front in eastern Ukraine, into the offensive.
France’s defense ministry said on Monday that Kyiv’s forces “appear to have reduced the pace of their initial advance, but are consolidating their positions” in captured territory.
But holding on to a position that can be attacked from multiple sides will prove difficult, analysts say. Mr. Kuzan, of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, also noted the vulnerability of fixed Ukrainian position to Russian airstrikes. Such a dynamic, he said, “immediately invites the use of aviation, guided bombs and ballistic missiles.”
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Olha Konovalova contributed research, and Eric Schmitt contributed reporting.
Constant Méheut reports on the war in Ukraine, including battlefield developments, attacks on civilian centers and how the war is affecting its people.
A version of this article appears in print on Aug. 15, 2024, Section A, Page 7 of the New York edition with the headline: Border Invasion Forces Russia to Change Plans. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe
A Ukrainian military vehicle passing a roadside crater minutes after a Russian strike near the border in Ukraine’s Sumy region on Tuesday. Credit...David Guttenfelder for The New York Times
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