US Military's Failing Deterrence Against China - The Gatestone Institute - 26.12.22

'They Are Putting Capability in the Field Faster Than We Are' says Judith Bergman.

In just two years since 2020, when the Pentagon wrongly estimated that it would take China a decade to double its nuclear stockpile at the time of approximately 200 nuclear warheads, China has already doubled its stockpile.

"As I assess our level of deterrence against China, the ship is slowly sinking, It is sinking slowly, but it is sinking, as fundamentally they are putting capability in the field faster than we are. As those curves keep going, it isn't going to matter how good our [operating plan] is or how good our commanders are, or how good our forces are – we're not going to have enough of them. And that is a very near-term problem." — Admiral Charles Richard, defense.gov, November 3, 2022.

Unfortunately, the US is facing China with a lot of outdated military hardware.

Instead of doing all in its power to counter those adversaries, however, the Department of Defense has been focusing precious time on extremism, diversity, equity and inclusion, and climate change within the military....

In July, the Senate Armed Services Committee called on the Pentagon to stop its programs to prevent and root out extremism within the military, most notably Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin's "stand-down" directive, which the military spent 5.4 million hours on implementing, at a cost of more than $500,000.

Overall, since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021, at a time when every effort should have been geared towards countering top military threats, the Department of Defense spent nearly six million hours on extremism, diversity, equity and inclusion training, and climate change.

In just two years since 2020, when the Pentagon wrongly estimated that it would take China a decade to double its nuclear stockpile at the time of approximately 200 nuclear warheads, China has already doubled its stockpile. Unfortunately, the US is facing China with a lot of outdated military hardware.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin gave a stern warning about US competition with China earlier this month at the Reagan National Defense Forum:

"These next few years will set the terms of our competition with the People's Republic of China. And they will determine whether our children and grandchildren inherit an open world of rules and rights — or whether they face emboldened autocrats who seek to dominate by force and fear...

"The PRC is the only country with both the will and, increasingly, the power to reshape its region and the international order to suit its authoritarian preferences."

One of the Pentagon's main concerns is China's continued accelerating nuclear buildup. Every year, the Pentagon's estimates of China's nuclear buildup appear to grow exponentially.

When the Pentagon assessed China's nuclear arsenal in its annual report to Congress in November 2020, it projected that China's nuclear warhead stockpile, which the Pentagon then estimated to be in the low 200s, would "at least double in size" over the next decade.

Just one year later, in November 2021, the Pentagon found itself acknowledging that China's nuclear buildup was taking place at an astonishing speed, with the nuclear warhead stockpile now possibly quadrupling over the next decade, to up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027.

Now, in Pentagon's 2022 annual report to Congress, released at the end of November, the Pentagon has doubled last year's projection. The report estimates that if China continues at its current pace, by 2035 it will have 1,500 nuclear warheads, adding:

"Over the next decade, the PRC aims to modernize, diversify and expand its nuclear forces. Compared to the PLA's [People's Liberation Army] nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts exceed beyond previous attempts in both scale and complexity...

"In 2021, Beijing probably accelerated its nuclear expansion; DoD estimates China's operational nuclear warheads stockpile has surpassed 400."

Finally, the military spent 1,059 hours and $5,000 on the research, development, writing or coordination of the "DoD Climate Adaptation Plan" since January 21, 2021.

Overall, since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021, at a time when every effort should have been geared towards countering top military threats, the Department of Defense spent nearly six million hours on extremism, diversity, equity and inclusion training, and climate change.

For the full article in pdf, please click here:

US Military's Failing Deterrence Against China - by Judith Bergman for the Gatestone Insti.

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https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/19259/us-china-failing-deterrence

Pictured: DF-17 hypersonic missiles at a military parade in Beijing, China, on October 1, 2019. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)