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'Xi Jinping prepares China For a Showdown' - Jonathan Cheng for The Wall Street Journal – 14.10.22

Writer's picture: Michael JulienMichael Julien

Xi Jinping’s Endgame: A China Prepared for Conflict With the U.S.


Since rising to power a decade ago, Xi Jinping has unleashed an array of campaigns to help ensure that China would prevail in, or at least withstand, a confrontation with the West. He has bolstered China’s military, reorganized the economy and remade society around a more ideologically committed Communist Party.


Mr. Xi has made clear that his overarching goal is to restore China to what he believes is its rightful place as a global player and a peer of the U.S. As a consequence, he has come to see the possibility of a showdown with the West as increasingly likely, according to people familiar with his thinking.


Now he stands on the edge of a third five-year term in power at a Communist Party conclave starting Sunday, in a break with a recent precedent of stepping aside after two terms. That will likely ensure that his vision, which is simultaneously assertive and defensive, will guide China for years to come.


His approach could be summed up in a favorite aphorism of Mao Zedong that Mr. Xi has invoked, warning against a lack of vigilance, according to people familiar with the matter: “Don’t fight unsure wars, and don’t fight unprepared battles.”


Politically, Mr. Xi has installed trusted lieutenants at every level of the ruling Communist Party and cracked down on opposition in places like Hong Kong and Xinjiang, to help shore up his authority and weed out foreign influences.


Militarily, Mr. Xi has reorganized the People’s Liberation Army, doubled its budget and begun work to enhance China’s nuclear arsenal. He has also launched a societywide campaign to promote toughness, punish denigration of the military and prevent young men from wasting time playing videogames.


All are meant to ensure China is ready to engage in combat, if necessary, for the first time since 1979—especially if elections in the U.S. and Taiwan in 2024 result in leaders willing to embrace independence for the island, the reddest of red lines for Mr. Xi.


Economically, Mr. Xi has redirected billions of dollars to develop homegrown technologies, including advanced semiconductors it has long bought from abroad. He has reined in the private sector and reconstituted state-owned giants to compete on the global stage.


The moves could help China withstand further pressure from Washington to restrict trade or otherwise try to slow the nation’s rise. Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department added to the pressure with new export restrictions on advanced semiconductors and chip-manufacturing equipment, in an attempt to keep them from advancing China’s military power.


Many of Mr. Xi’s steps have boosted national pride and made China stronger. He regularly trumpets signs of China’s ascendancy and Western decline. But his moves have also alienated would-be friends, unified rivals and harmed many of the strongest parts of its economy, especially through the country’s harsh Covid-19 lockdowns.


Mr. Xi’s assertiveness and attempts by then-President Donald Trump and President Biden to take a more forceful stance on China have contributed to the deterioration in the two countries’ relations. American companies are rethinking their investment plans in China, once a promising growth market. Diplomatic meetings have degenerated into hectoring sessions.


Both sides have imposed sanctions on the other, while Chinese companies have delisted from U.S. exchanges.


For the full article in pdf with images, please click here:


Write to Jonathan Cheng at jonathan.cheng@wsj.com

Xi Jinping and other officials pledged their vows to the Communist Party during an event last year.Ng Han Guan/Associated Press

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